It’s finally here, a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship that looked a whole lot different back in April when the schedule first came out. Both teams lost stars to ACL injuries and both teams have lost to last year’s one-win Dolphins. Neither is exactly a Super Bowl favorite at the moment but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a great game between two teams that really don’t like each other. Yours truly will be there to witness the carnage.

It’s now or never for the Chargers. If they can’t beat the hated Patriots without Tom Brady, when they badly need a win, at home, in front of a national audience, they’re never going to beat them. Everyone knows the recent history between these two teams. And while the players have already been downplaying the rivalry, we all know that whenever the Patriots and Chargers lock horns it’s a contentious physical battle to the finish.

Though the Pats will be without #12 they are the far less banged up team. Just about every one of the Chargers stars is battling some kind of injury. When you factor in their homefield advantage, that pretty much makes it a wash. Whoever wants this game more will win it.

The Keyz for this week…

1. Stop Darren Sproules – I know, you’re surprised I’m not mentioning Crybaby Tomlinson or Throw-It-Like-a-Loaf-of-Bread Rivers as the number one threat but Sproules is the biggest homerun threat on the Chargers these days. Even Bill Belichick made a point to mention him in his weekly WEEI radio appearance. Luckily the Patriots defense is fresh after only playing twenty minutes against the 49ers. They also didn’t have to deal with the extended plane travel as the team has stayed on the west coast this week.

I do expect Rivers to complete a couple 20 yard passes. LT will probably have a 10-15 yard rush or two, and maybe pound in a 6-yard touchdown. The Pats can live with that. What they can’t live with is allowing Sproules to consistently set up good field position with his kick and punt returns or bust off an 80 yard screen pass touchdown run. Shut down Sproules, shut down the only healthy explosive threat the Chargers have left.

2. Matt Cassel and the Art of the Dump Off  - First let me say that I will take a sack over an interception any play of the week. I’d much prefer Matt Cassel’s current inner monolog of “I’ve got nothing, here they come, turtle!”, than say Sage Rosenfels’ “I got nothing, here they come, time to work my magic!”. More often than not that results in bad things. Cassel has been playing it safe for the most part and that’s a good thing.

But at some point he’s got to start getting through his reads fast enough to know when there’s nothing there it’s time to throw the ball into the fifteenth row. The yardage that he loses with each sack hasn’t come back to bite them in the tail pad just yet, but against a good team like San Diego you need every inch you can get. Reducing his sacks is the next step for Cassel in his progression as an NFL quarterback and one that has to be made this week if the Patriots are going to win.

3. Maroney's Got Something to Prove – I don’t want to pile on Maroney since he’s been the whipping boy of choice following last week’s win over the 49ers. Clearly LoMo is still fighting a shoulder injury and while we can crucify him for not wanting to lower his shoulder and take on man-beast Patrick Willis head on, I can’t say I don’t understand why he did duck out of bounds, albeit short of a first down.

Look, Maroney hasn’t lived up to his first round billing yet and everyone knows it. He’s shown flashes, specifically last year in the playoffs. We can’t forget he pretty much single-handedly sealed the win over the Chargers in the AFC Championship game. Maroney needs a big game almost more than anyone else on the Pats and it couldn’t come at a better time.

4. Welcome Back 4-Receiver Set – The Chargers are 32^nd (aka dead last) in the NFL in defending the pass. San Diego should really be counting their lucky stars that Tom Brady isn’t healthy, otherwise this would be looking like a blowout. However, as we saw last weekend, Matt Cassel is more than capable of getting the ball downfield. The Pats are comfortable going against the 3-4 front since it’s what they go against every day in practice, this should hopefully limit the pressure the Chargers can get on Cassel, especially with Shawne Merriman and most likely his back up Jyles Tucker both out.

Look for the Patriots to spread Benjamin Watson out at Wide Receiver and Matt Cassel to look his way his way early and often. We might also see some more of Sam Aiken as well.